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Old 08-18-2007, 05:30 AM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Default Re: Fed Rate Cut Discussion Thread

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There isn't. There's no reason to cut rates right now if you're concerned about the long-term health of the economy.

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That isn't true. Even if you think that the fundamentals of the economy are sound and that the market at 13900+ was not overpriced (as most do), the impact of a short term liquidity crisis is still a very long term contraction of capital that would slow the growth of the economy..its not like closing down the choke on your fuel line and then releasing it and getting instant response from your engine. There has been a significant delevering of large investors positions (especially the hedge funds). the deeper that delevering goes the longer it will take to "re-enrich" the fuel mix, and 50 bps is not enough to halt the delevering.

After some short term psychological rebound downward pressure is going to mount again, and another 50 bp cut isnt far behind. If they had gone the whole 100 bp today then a lot of the margin calls that had triggered the second round of declines would have been turned off, which is what is necessary to get things back on track quickly

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how does margin calls for hedge funds and large traders result in an overall economic slowdown?

it has to get back to companies (which is problamatic when commercial paper becomes next to impossible to roll) or consumers (not demanding enough).

the 50bp discount window and "we'll take any credit" certainly adds liquidity.

the fact that the delevering is happening is a good thing. there was too much of the opposite.

Barron
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