[freck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Nate Diaz -200
vs.
Junior Assuncao +160


[/ QUOTE ]

i dont know too much about assuncao other than hes a pretty good bjj guy, so as long as he's not a complete can, i'd take +160 against diaz anyday....nate is very young and just like the elder diaz, highly overrated....


[/ QUOTE ]

I've been looking at the Diaz/Assuncao fight, and think that a bet on Assuncao is the best available on the card right now.

Assuncao's striking is aggressive and unconventional (he is almost bitch-slapping Pellegrino in their fight which looks a bit silly, but Batman didn't seem to want to trade blows with it), but a little sloppy and he'll be giving up a fair bit of reach to Diaz. However I don't see Diaz subbing Assuncao too often (JA is a BJJ brown belt), and his most likely chance of a victory IMO is taking advantage of the reach and grinding out a decision. Assuncao could sub Diaz, or overwhelm him with strikes if he manages to get close enough (he's also shown toughness and at least a half-way decent chin).

Basically Diaz's main strength as a fighter is on the ground, but I think Assuncao is better down there - which makes it an interesting (if slightly odd) first fight for a TUF winner.