Re: First good idea
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I guess this could be a good thread but you leave something to be desired here. Maybe you could talk about how you found the company, why you like it, why you decided to buy 20% now....anything?
I'm not really sure what anyone else can add to this besides "hope to hear more" kind of things.
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This was meant as more of a preview. I am not going to talk about the stock yet because I have a lot still to buy and it is not super liquid (although not wildly illiquid like some of the ideas I have seen here which literally don't trade).
My main goal was to get it out there now, explain that we actually think a miss is coming, explain our strategy going into the call...I do this to avoid looking like a Monday morning qback later.
The 20% worked like this...a friend suggested this idea...I bot a modest position as a starter because it sounded interesting...then we got worried because the short term read sorta ugly and upon further investigating with my friend's primary source, realized that even that guy thought the stock was not a buy ahead of the Q. So I was pissed I even bot the starter. We then spent over an hour with CFO on the phone and both came away saying this is the one.
BUT Q1 sounded ugly. They have signalled this to some extent, but it is very difficult to guage the market's reaction to the actual release. On the one hand, it is hard to imagine the stock going up on this bad a release. ON the other hand, it is possible that people who understand the situation well are taking the same approach I am and we could be surprised by the reaction.
In addition, the amount of stock I want to buy is not trivial compared to the average daily volume of this stock. Actually, as I write this and look at the daily volume I am seriously considering buying more before the earnings, even though I don't expect them to be good, because there are many days where my appetite would equate ot 5x the daily volume. This is a very tough call from a trading standpoint.
That said, anticipating Desert Cat's commentary, this should be a good idea whether I handle the trading well or not. It's just one aspect of trying to maximize the profitability of the investment.
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