[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
I would 3 bet pre.

[/ QUOTE ]
I might be on to a leak in my game.

Assuming the random player raises 14% of his hands here
(77+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo)

he's likely to be folding around 50% (you make 4.5BB), coming over the top with 20% of that range (JJ+,AKs,AKo) (you lose 9BB), and calling with approximately 30% (remaining pairs, AQs, some suited connecters etc.).

Some tricky opponents will flat call with KK or AA.

If he calls you'll see overcards on the flop 70% of the time, and you'll generally have to commit a c-bet of at least 14BB hoping to take down the 19.5BB pot on the flop.

If no overcard show up on the flop, it actually increases the likelyhood that he's flopped at set.

So now you've invested more than a third of your stack ... without really knowing where you are?

Can someone explain to me why 3-betting PF isn't turning your perfectly decent hand into a bluff?