[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the point of my thread/question is to ask who, having taken a line for the reasons I've given, then changes the plan when so deep in light of the new information provided on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]I completely understand the question you're asking, but I think you made a mistake on the turn and that's why you have this new information to consider on the river. Like threads from newbies who minraise AA pf with full stacks and then want advice later in the hand when they are completely screwed, I think you have to look at the real issue, which is the turn bet. Note- I'm NOT saying this hand is the same AT ALL as minraising AA with full stacks- I'm just saying that your difficult decision on the river points toward a mistake made earlier in the hand. If there is such a mistake (and I think there is), then THAT should be the thing to worry about.

The point I'm trying to make (and I'm trying to be helpful, not argumentative) is that I think you are overvaluing the value you can gain from JJ/TT. A reasonably competent player is not going to c/r one of those hands on this board and then give up a full stack when called "putting you on AK" or a draw. If you managed to float him with AK after a c/r, then you've earned the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
you seem to suggest that I shouldn't bet the turn in case he has a hand at the upper part of his range and goes for a check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]You've got me wrong. I'm not saying he likely has you beat so you should be afraid to bet. Without knowing the results, on the turn I'd say his range is mostly hands you beat along with a few monsters that have you crushed. However, if you bet, then you fold out most of the hands you beat, definitely get called by the hands that have you crushed, and rarely get any value from hands that you beat that you wouldn't have gotten on the river anyway. And while I agree with you that JJ/TT will sometimes stack off on the turn (the whole, "Ok, I'm comitted I guess" response), I don't think it will happen often enough to make up for the times that YOU overcommit against his mosters or fold out JJ/TT who doesn't want to face a river bet (And there fore you lose value).

[ QUOTE ]
I certainly hadn't planned to deal with a c/r when I made the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]I think this also indicates a problem with the turn bet. We should always be anticipating moves our opponents are going to make and have plans to deal with them.

You might not consider the c/r specifically, but you should at least consider what hands villain will commit with, whether as a c/r or by c/c the river. I think his range for doing that is far narrower than you think. I DO realize that sometimes people will get committed without realizing they are and stack off light, but this will not happen all the time, even with JJ/TT. I think his all in range is strong enough that you'll be taking the worst of it.

But seriously, back to your very original question. I usually pay off here, even with the new information. And the reason I do it is to punish myself so the next time I'll make sure and think through my turn decision a little better. And when I don't pay off, I go back through the hand and try and figure out where I might have overcommited myself.