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Old 08-27-2007, 02:50 PM
KenProspero KenProspero is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,408
Default Re: Pls Help Me Learn From This Hand

Help us a little here -- what are the payouts?

Specifically, what does 7th pay, what does 4th pay, what does 1,2,3 pay.

Your situation, unless you make a major move, you're playing for fourth.

1. I don't love your pre-flop call. In fact, I rarely, if ever like just calling when it's been folded around to SB. If you're going to play against the stack, raise. Get him to fold his garbage now, rather than letting him hit something. If he has a real hand, he'd probably raise you anyway. Are you going to fold ATs? If not, bet it out. I think make it 1500 to go probably works, maybe a touch more.

2. Post flop -- Don't check. Your probably ahead, but can't afford to give a free card.

Let's think about what villian may be holding. AK, AQ, or AJ (maybe a little less, even), and he probably raises pre-flop, so you're probably ahead, unless he's holding something like K6. However, there are a lot of drawing hands that can hurt you, JT, J9, two clubs for example. Don't give the free card.

Your all-in bet. Ok, you knew you were going to be called, right? Based on the play, I'd figure you're a coin flip, maybe a bit better. (as it stands, he has 15+ outs -- 9 clubs, 2 kings, 3 queens, plus a little for the runner-runner straight), You have a few outs -- 5 outs (unless he hits a flush) plus a runner runner straight draw. I think you're an underdog as the cards lie.

However, even if you're a slight favorite -- if you lose, you finish 7th, and if you win, you still have an uphill battle for 3rd. I'm not saying you're wrong, but my guess is that this isn't the time to make your stand.
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