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Old 11-28-2007, 02:11 PM
Raxxmataxx Raxxmataxx is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 70
Default Re: Stud hi - flushdraw 3-way, becomes tricky

4th assuming a pair of aces for Jd8s it seems like you are the equity favorite. Even if Jd8s is rolled up you're pretty close to even. And that scenario is very unlikely since one jack is dead.

5th, I thought you would have very good equity due to the straight draw, but three of the nines are gone, so not much gained outs-wise. Had the nines been live it would have been a very clear value-raise.

You're still in good shape though. Especially since seat 6 is very weighted towards either a big pair or being rolled up with only three jacks available. He can't really have any two pair, unless he overplays split jacks like hell.

That you block trip queens is also nice. And even if he does have trip queens you're still not in horrible shape, but pretty close to break-even.

I think the most common danger is seat 2 having a better four flush, but even then you aren't in a lot of trouble.

And in a lot of common scenarios you have 40%-50% equity.

So mostly it seems that the danger with raising 5th is making seat 6 fold.

I'm strongly leaning towards raising since it seems probable that s6 has buried aces and is going to stick around regardless of raise.

On 6th I definitely think you should re-raise if anyone raises you. It's impossible for s6 to have a boat or better and very, very unlikely that s2 has it due to his side cards to QQ being dead (2 eights, 1 queen and 1 king and buried kings are inconsistent with early play).

At 7th I think you should definitely bet call one and maybe fold if there's a raise + call or call + raise. And probably not fold to the latter either. The pot is huge.
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