Re: S8/b - Paternal Twins
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I'm becoming a passive nut in this post, so it's probably best if nobody takes me too seriously.
I think there's an interesting argument to be made for limping and keeping the pot small in Hand 1, given what we know of Seats 4 and 5. That is to say that both of them will play exactly as many pots for a raise as they would for a limp, so we have no isolation value.
Once Seat 5 catches a good card you're in trouble because you're never going to have any idea what he has, and that will lead to big bet mistakes. He's not going to fold fourth with that card, so there's not a lot of point in betting. I wonder if checking it through might not be better, primarily because it allows you a good chance to retain position and make a better decision in a small pot on fifth.
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Good alternative strategy, except we have no way of expecting seat 4 to call if we complete. Seat 5 will likely play on of course. I think the percentage play therefore is to complete on 3rd, unless your positive seat 4 will call the completion.
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