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Old 09-04-2007, 03:23 PM
APXG APXG is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 484
Default Re: Is Party a good buy?

Party shouldn't have much value in the long-term sense b.c. thinking back to Buffett, moats, and Coca Cola -- Party and online gaming in general have the opposite of that. Very low barriers to entry, still a very much developing profit landscape, and so so much that could happen that would obliterate them into obscurity. The chances of Party still being around in 5 years are very slim IMO -- there is/was nothing special about them other than that they got lucky in capturing the US market. While a year ago there was hope they could leverage this into other markets, it is becoming clear that such a hypothesis will turn out to be false.

Short term the shares are rather illiquid and thus could easily run up some ridiculous % on minor positive news that when coupled with memories of their high flying days and the relative discount they are trading at will spark a conatagious influx onto the long side. None of these people will be truly bullish of Party long term though, and thus the mini-boom will suffer the same fate as it did in the spring.

And I agree with john k that governments are highly unlikely to follow the US in their future policies towards gambling. Not only is there higher awareness of it than there was in the early 2000's, but also a clearer sense of potential profits. It is a guarantee that these revenue streams will no longer be left for 33 yr old Dikshits and sketchy porn queens.
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