[jesse8888]

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That said, and without knowing how often you need to be drawing live for this to be profitable, I probably find a fold on the turn.

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He's getting 6.25 to 1 on the turn, assuming the other player calls his last big bet. He's also effectively closing the action.

1. In the best possible case, he has nine clubs, three 4s, and three 9s to make his hand. Thats 15 outs.

2. In the worst possible case, he is drawing dead.

3. In some cases he has fewer than 15 outs, if some outs fill someone up (say Swami holds 45s, for example). There is also a small chance his flush will be toileted.

Let's assume the river action is even money when he hits, and just work with what he's presented on the turn (I don't think we're raising even if we hit, so only one bet is going in, and I think it's safe to say we're somewhere around 50/50 if we hit on that bet).

At 6.25:1 with 46 unknown cards, you need 6.5 outs to call profitably. When you're in case 3 (drawing live but with less than 15 outs), I think it's safe to say you have more than 6.5 outs on average. A bigger flush draw is unlikely, and that's what you're really worried about, as it would kill 9 of your outs. If I may, I'll call case 3 break even, but I think it's actually a bit better than that.

So, we're down to cases 1 and 2, where we have 15 outs and 0 outs, respectively. Since we need 7 outs to make this call, we need to be drawing live around 45% of the time to make this call.

Do my numbers make sense so far? The next question is, "How often are we drawing live"?