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No, actually it isn't. the Jack with the 8-smooth draw is about a 6% favorite on 5th (ignoring the board display advantages that add to your lead imo). If the Jack catches bad and villan catches good on 6th, you're only about a 3:1 dog.

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Your analysis here is correct, and the same point is made later in the article: [ QUOTE ]
If he folded on 5th, then I'd be shipped a pot of 7 big bets having had only 56% equity in it (which is why it was a semi-semibluff since my draw to an 8 perfect was actually a small favorite on 5th street).

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So it's never claimed that the c/r is a true semibluff, but it's clearly not a value bet either.

According to Wikipedia, a value bet is "A bet made by a player who wants it to be called (as opposed to a bluff or protection bet). This is typically because he has a superior hand that he expects to win at showdown, or a very good draw for which he can increase his pot equity by more than the amount of his bet." IMHO this definition is a little too narrow, since many value bets are made in a spot where the hero would prefer the villain(s) to fold, but isn't likely to get that result. To be a "value bet" it has to be a bet hero would make without any fold equity or advantage to be gained on future streets (such as free cards, free showdown, etc.) In this article, the hero is attempting to gain the greatest fold equity and would not make the bet purely for value given the tournament factors. [ QUOTE ]
If he had [checked behind], I certainly wouldn't have minded "missing a bet" with that small an edge in a tournament.

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