Re: Wongable Teasers for this Weekend
Not the results I was expecting to see, but teasing a 3-point favorite 6.5 points (yes, across the zero) looks about break-even.
My book pays 5/6 on a 6.5 point 2-teamer. So break even is 6/11 wins, so each leg needs at least sqrt(6/11) = 73.85% to win. I have 783 examples of a 3-point favorite from 1985 to 2006, and 73.95% of those have covered the 6.5-point teased line.
454 times the home team was favored, and covered the teased line 74.23% of the time. 329 times the road team was favored, and covered the teased line 73.56% of the time.
-Ritmo
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