[denks]

Thanks for the input. My big concern is that I happened to hit an extremely 'lucky' streak (I hate that word - I believe in probability, not luck) and just happened to sit at tables where the cards were set in my favour and in the long run things will even out.

To give an indication on the simulation Im completing, It will be 0 - 52 cards in the discard tray (some of the dealers go up to 2 decks consistently in the discard tray), with 1 - 11 cards in a buffer to be dealt. Any cards inside the machine will be randomly shuffled each round. I am not sure the exact model of CSM used, it consists of a large wheel inside which rotates with roughly 20 - 30 slots for the card to be dropped randomly into in a first in first out manner. It appears these slots are then dropped into the buffer to be dealt (hence why Im counting on up to 10 cards in the buffer). I will add this slot functionality in the next version of the simulator I write using 30 slots.

So far the simulations have supported the above that a CSM cannot be beaten, I am going to see if there is any difference in number of boxes playing or seating position.

As an aside, based on several million games of simulation per betting strategy I have performed over the past month in what appears to be roughly a 1% likelihood - my lucky month I guess [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: As I made more than the average amount off the BJ tables meaning I had a better than average run it is quite likely that I did indeed observe the above rather than it being cognitive bias. However that is not to say that in the long term my observations will hold - it is likely that what I observed will balance out in the end and prove to be an exception rather than the rule. Will keep you posted as to the results of the simulations. Curious on thoughts - is 1 mill simulations enough per situation?