[nawhead]

I have all three seasons of HSP, and I've been watching them continuously for the past few weeks. At first I just watched for the fun of it, but then on repeat viewings, I started to really analyze every hand. And after really studying all the hundreds of hands played, the one fact that I've come to is that the "good" high stakes players don't push or raise on draws unless they really believe their 2nd pair/ace high is the best hand.

Maybe it's the fact that a lot of these guys come from mixed game limit backgrounds, but the flat call with a draw, even combo draws, seems to be the preferred line.

The only players that did raise/push on 8+ outer draws routinely was Farha (hold'em donk), Matusow (cash game donk), Negreanu (on bad beat tilt), Eli Elezra (is this guy even a winning player?), Esfandiari (fps addict), Sheikhan (fish), Brian Townsend, and Illya Trincher. The one person who I thought would push in on the draw at least once, Doyle Brunson, never did. The only times Doyle ever pushed was with a straight, boat, overpair, and AK preflop on a tiny pot.

So this "put a man to a decision for all his chips" business by Doyle is a myth I think. The man who coined that phrase never put a man to a test for all his chips, not ever, on a less than (what he believed to be) the best hand.

Even more eye opening to me was that these high stakes players pure bluff/gutshot raised more than straight/flush draw raised. We know the Brad Booth check-raise allin with a gutshot verus Ivey's overpair, but then there's the 3-bet allin by Greenstein with JT on a K44 board versus Elezra's KJ cb raise. The general reasoning seemed to be that a regular draw has good equity, so calling is ok, but longshots have low equity, so raising/pushing is preferred.

So considering this, and considering they're worth millions. Are they right? Or are the 2/4 NL "pros" who push their nut flush draws right? Is flat-calling with 8+ outers and raising with 0-6 outers the real optimal play?