[mxp2004]

In 1/2 NL, I think betting patterns are more reliable than physical tells. I play in this game at the Borgata a lot, and so here are some of my observations.

First, an open-raise to $15 from MP by a player who hasn't played a lot of hands is a strong indication of a big hand. A typical opening raise from the average player is closer to $10 or $12. In my experience, the higher the initial raise from the player opening the pot from an early position, the stronger the hand. Here -- where we are not talking about a LAG player -- the raise almost certainly means JJ+, AK, or AQ.

Second, players do continuation bet often. But the flop bet has a higher probability of being "air" when the flop is taken heads up, not 4-ways, and when there are not several players still to act.

Also, the size of the bet here is unusual for a non-LAG player. In my experience, $25 is like a dividing line for a lot of players in the 1/2 NL game at the Borgata. Any bet less than that can be a stab at the pot; any bet more than that means, "I have a hand."

Third, the push is a clincher. Again, the typical tight player (LAGs are different) in this game is not pushing with two overcards and a flush draw. Even though we know that such a hand is the favorite against a pair to win after the flop, you're not going to find a lot of players in the 1/2 game at the Borgata who know this, too. I'd need a lot of evidence that the bettor knows what he's doing (if we're talking about a tight player) before I committed all of my chips with just a top pair hand.

I think you should have considered just calling here on the flop. You weren't going to push a better hand off, and you were unlikely to be called by a lower pair. OTOH, if this was a continuation bet by the pre-flop raiser, they will often check/fold the turn if they still have air once you've called a sizable bet.

Finally, I think you neglected to take into account the presence of the flush draw. Let's say MP leads this flop for $40, the other two players fold, and then you just call. Now that you're heads up, the flush draw is probably your friend. If it hits on the turn, you can represent the flush with a bet. While C/R preflop may not get a tight player to laydown a big pair, the dreaded flush often can because the tight player often thinks that everyone chases these draws. Unless he's a tight and a calling station, an obvious draw hitting is a good bluffing opportunity.