Thread: 66 vs Ultra LAG
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Old 10-17-2007, 12:09 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Default Re: 66 vs Ultra LAG

[ QUOTE ]
i agree w/ pokey that flop is c/c, but I just prefer to not let him catch any of his overcards on the river - so i like a crai on the turn. He may even fold if he pairs a T, 7, or 8 on turn and you crai.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's playing scared, and it's also a -EV move.

Assume villain has missed. That means he's got six chances to improve out of over 42. There's a 1-in-7 chance that villain hits a hand on the turn, and a 1-in-7 chance that he hits on the river. You're WAY ahead, and pushing villain out of the pot is burning money.

Assume villain actually has a hand (it happens once in awhile, after all). In that case, your CRAI just burns your entire stack, whereas calling down might not cost you everything.

The only time the CRAI is profitable is if (1) the river card would have made villain a better hand than yours, or (2) villain's hand is better than yours but he's scared enough to fold to your turn push. Since both of these are rare occurances, you actually make more money in the long run by clanging your brass balls together and calling down like a hero.
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