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Old 06-30-2007, 06:29 PM
ddubois ddubois is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Ewa Beach, HI
Posts: 3,647
Default Re: top set goes horribly wrong - call overbet river push?

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($36) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $28</font>, SB calls $28.

Turn: ($92) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $70</font>, SB calls $70.

[/ QUOTE ]
IMO, given your hand and the board here and not looking at the river, it seems like he has a flush draw here extremely often. When that ace comes, I look at it as an opportunity to get the nut flush draw to call off way more than it should (in an FTOP sense), so I would be betting this turn much larger than a standard second barrel. I don't feel this is exploitable, because I'm not betting my hand and much as I'm betting his. In the moment I probably just click pot, but I think if I was playing well, I would either:
1) overbet a strange amount, or
2) underbet a strange amount, only if I thought villain was really aggressive and would jump at this weakness and CR me, or
3) shove with the hope of looking like a bluff and inducing a hero call.

If it hadn't been the ace, I'd like the normal two barrel size better (but I'd still probably pot, because I want to crush implied odds). But still, if he has some 8x or medium pockets, he's not calling any turn bet anyway, and there's very few combos of Kx, so your bet may as well target the hands that are drawing to beat you.

You can't call river; I think Miller said something about "don't make their optimistic calls correct".
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