[DcifrThs]

man that is an ugly turn card...no more folding for ya...or so it seems.

the one problem here is that you'd still rather get 6 every time.

anyways, here's how id look at it. how bad is UTG? i mean are we talking KQ or AJ/AQ here a lot or something as bad as A7...the thing is that there are MANY hands he can hold that contain a jack: QJ/KJ/AJ/JT/J8/J9/maybe even J6s or something depending on how bad he is. and all of those are more likely b/c he DIDNT raise preflop (even AJ is suspect b/c a fish would probably raise it even UTG preflop). the hands that are least likely from the fish are the bigger Ace type hands that have both cards over the board. would he really call 2 cold here on the flop w/ the worst of those holdings (or hands like QT/KT?...T9 is obvioudly going nowhere).

also note that ther is a flush draw on board. this changes this a great deal as well b/c a) you didn't say whether you have the 6c, and b) b/c the fish did indeed call two cold on the flop and unless he is bad enough to LIMP utg AND cold call the flop after a pf raised and a bb c'r with just overs, then it's more likely he has some kind of straight and/or flush draw. of course he may have overs, but that would mean he is TERRIBLE...not just 'fishy.'

now on the turn, you have what looks like six outs. but c'mon man, no way in hell those are clean. do you know what kind of silly - ass parlay youd need here to have six outs. the fish and the pfraiser must BOTH not have a jack AND not have a flush draw for you to have all 6 outs clean. you honestly have an average way fewer outs total (if you dont have the 6c) you gain one out if you have the 6c. first off, your 9 has to be discounted (before we take away the 9c) b/c oneo f them MAY have a jack and if you bet neither are going anywhere. so maybe discount the 9 25%, so that's 3 outs.

if you DO have the 6c then you have 2 very likely clean outs but you STILL have to discount them for the chance the fish has something like T9 or J9 etc. so that becomes maybe 1.75 outs or something.

so w/o counting the flush draw you have 4.75 outs. now we have to take into acct that 2 of those 4.75 outs are completely unusable and cost you money if you hit your hand and the club falls. WITH the 6 of clubs that 4.75 becomes 4.5 if he holds the flush draw 1/4 of the time. so with the 6c you have about 4.5 outs given the above.

without the 6c you now have to discount your 6 by the same thing and the 9. further (although it's not substantial), not having the 6c makes it slightly more likely a club draw is out in UTGs hands (K6s A6s etc.) PLUS you dont have the 6c as an out. so now you have one discounted 6 to catch~= .84 outs. then you have 4 nines left which you have to discount both for the Js and the club draws for 3 outs (25% for the Js) minus .75 (25% from the club draw) which leaves 2.75+ .84= 3.59 outs

so you have between 3.59 and 4.5 outs ASSUMING the flush and straight draws only discount your hand's outs by 25% (the play of UTG on the flop indicates more of an attachment to this board than 25% discount provides).

there are 6.25 bbs in this pot.

now this gets a bit tricky because you simply may still have the best hand. but if you do, you hate to get raised b/c now you may not be able to fold (pot up near 10 bets) and you've put in 2 bets when behind withsome reverse implied odds on the river.

honestly, there is no shame in check folding this hand. if you check, you have made it possible to get blows out by MP so i would prefer a bet if youd plan to continue w/ the hand (not to mention the other attractive benefits of betting)

those benefits correlate w/ the decision to bet. i.e. if you think you are likely to have the best hand more than normal then it warrents a bet, which then makes it costly for your opponents to draw and less likely you'll be raised.

anyways, i think you all see the points above and ive probably waxed a bit too lyrical here but im lazy and this was a stream of conscienceness post so sorry about that. further, excuse me not editing or reviewing this post.

Barron