Re: Full Tilt satellite to $500 WSOP Super - pro called me a donk - am
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ICM (ignoring blinds) results in 93% with a fold and 85% with a loss, so the break even is 53:47 favorite. AQ is much better than that against a reaasonable range and its an easy call.
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I don't know if those numbers are exactly right, but it agrees with what I thought intuitively.
All the people saying "easy fold" are confusing this with the situation where you are a big stack with a larger number of players left in the satellite.
When there are 3 players for 2 seats, your big stack advantage is somewhat reduced because you have to play mor tight/passive. It is not certain you can fold your way in. Your opponents may be able to keep stealing from you and catching up.
There is a lot to be said for calling and trying to end it right here.
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