How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
Hello,
after strings of 1-2000 games going up in ROI, I always experience a period really hard to deal with.
Time ago I wrote a program, that I called 'luckometer' to just check difference from won chips and EV in preflop allins 1v1. I found that in the long run difference should tend to 0.
However, at a certain point , bad luck seem unstoppable.
I give an example with some numbers (from today)..
143 25$+2$ sit & go played
I was 352 times allin preflop (1v1 showdown).
I was 51.42% on edge vs my opponent's hand.
My expected value was 600,087 chips.
I extracted from pots just 483,088 chips.
Difference is 24.22% negative, 116,999 chips were lost in bad luck..
I wrote a simulator too that repeat the games flip and, playing 352 allins 200 times it never had a so negative result.
Is there anyone with a good math/statistic background that can help me to calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ?
Meanwhile I will simulate a long run with the simulator to see how many times 'this may happen' in an empiric way
Thanks
SJ
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