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Old 11-20-2007, 07:35 PM
RapidEvolution RapidEvolution is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Grinding 50NL?
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Default Re: NL25 - Speculation preflop leads to this.....

Calling this raise with this hand is awful, unless it's specifically a case where you don't care what the cards are and are just looking to play position postflop. The fact that you're in MP2 lowers the value of this play IMO, since there are 2 people that can come in that have position on you (not to mention 4 players that could reraise and push you off your hand completely.

You get a pretty nice flop and make your move, but it doesn't push villain out. The raise size is fine and should fold out hands like AK/AQ. After he calls, I'd say an overpair is pretty likely. He could have something like AsKs or AsJs, but I think those hands would be happy to reraise and get the money in on the flop.

When he bets into you on the turn, you're actually getting the odds to call, assuming that spades and 9's are clean outs, AND there will be some money behind that you can get if you hit. Raising the turn only puts all of your money in as an underdog, and it seems pretty unlikely that he's folding.

On the river..you have $3 left...if he folds to a shove you should invite him to your home game (if I don't find him first). I'd call getting almost 200-1 on my bet. It's well worth it and there's a slim chance (better than 200-1 by far) that you'll see AsKs or AsJs and scoop the pot thanks to the river 6. If nothing else, it'll tilt the snot out of him.
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