Re: Hand from Coaching Session
Aight I'm gonna flush out a little math on this.
Villains's 3betting range in this hand is probably something like TT+, AQs+. It shouldn't be this wide, but I'm expanding it a little because, well, it's 50nl, and people overvalue and do stupid things. No history either, remember.
I'm going to kind of analyze this as a best case scenario in terms of range to emphasize what I believe to be the merit.
I would argue that his range for betting this turn includes his whole preflop range minus QdQs, the AQhh, ss, dd, and the 3 combo's of JJ that don't include a club. This range comprises 3.1% of all hands.
I'm also going to argue that he folds everything but AK/AQcc, AcKx, AcAx, KK, TT, and JcJx. Again, this is best case scenario. This range comprises 2.0% of all hands, or 64.5% of of his turn betting range.
Board: 3s Tc Kc 7c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.909% 70.91% 00.00% 468 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KK, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, TT, AcKc, AcQc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc }
Hand 1: 29.091% 29.09% 00.00% 192 0.00 { QcQh }
EV = .355(41.75) + .645(.29091(66.95) + .70909(-66.95))
= -$3.23
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