View Single Post
  #13  
Old 08-25-2007, 06:27 PM
yellowjack yellowjack is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: fighting -EV
Posts: 2,152
Default Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position

When I have a huge draw on the turn w/ the betting initiative, I bet the river as well. With a weaker draw, c/f if you can't showdown. This results in most of your missed draws being c/f on the river, but the odd time you'll 3-barrel.

When you don't have the betting initiative, I would work on balancing the range of hands I would c/r the turn with so that it's -EV or 0 EV for them to calldown. This idea is from Phil Galfond's article in bluff, I think it's linked somewhere on the frontpage. This is a bit of work to do on your own, but here's a lengthy example:

You defended the BB vs. a HJ PFR.
The flop went c/c and you've checked the turn to a villain's bet.

Pot is 4 BB when villain bets the turn and you are about to c/r
Board: Jh 8c 2d Kh
Villain's hand: JTo (no hearts)

Suppose your range is 22, KJs, K8s, J8s, KJo, Qh Th, Qh 9h, Th 9h.

6 hands of 22
2 hands of KJs
3 hands of K8s
2 hands of J8s
4 hands of KJo
3 flush draws

Qh Th has 18 outs, Qh 9h has 14 outs, Th 9h has 15 outs. A FD we have has an average of 16 outs.

On the river, assume we will bet all cards whether we improved or not. Check/calling with a rivered 2nd or 3rd pair after c/r-ing the turn is very exploitable.

Villain's calldown EV:
-2 BB (17/20 made hands) + 6 BB (3/20 FDs)*(16/44 outs) = -1.37 BB

The hand ranges I gave are superficial and should NOT resemble your actual hand range. A lot of flopped made hands should be c/r-ed on the flop to balance the strength of the hands you c/r the flop with and the hands you c/r the turn with.

Perhaps a better hand range in the example to c/r the turn with would have been to remove KJs & J8s (to reserve for a flop c/r) and throw in KQ (both offsuit and suited). I'm too lazy to change that now.

I am aware OP understands this, but pair + FD combos should be c/c UI and c/r (or bet) if improved. Therefore they were not included in the range of hands.
Reply With Quote