[baltostar]

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you definately dont have 6 outs if you shove w/ a gutshot to broadway and get called

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Ok, if he already has broadway you have 3 outs to chop, so that counts as 1.5. If he has a broadway draw to a T you have 3. Same broadway draw as you is unlikely but you chop, so 4 counts as 2. If he has a set you only have 4 good maybe 2/3 of the time = 2.5. If he has 2P you have 6 good maybe 2/3 of the time = 4. If he has PP of the card you need you have 4. If he has top pair, you have maybe 5.5 Put it all in the blender, I don't know, maybe 3.5 outs on avg ? I guess you probably shouldn't shove 3.5x the pot vs. utg raiser on AKQ AKJ KQJ

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o rly?

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If I was villain here's what I'd raise UTG with M=15 : any pair, AJ+, A8s+, KQ, KJs, KTs, T9s+. I'm calling the AKQ AKJ AQJ KQJ boards with AA KK QQ JJ TT AJ+, ATs, KQ, KJs, KTs, QJs, JTs.

Let's assume villain doesn't have a T.

XX hands have 6 combos, XY have 8, XYs have 4. Villain calling frequency would be = (4*6 + 4*8 + 5*4)/(13*6 + 4*8 + 8*4) = (76/142) = 53%

If called, hero loses (1 - 3.5/45) = 92% of the time.

Expected payoff for hero = (47% * 4390) + (53% * ( 7% * 4390 - 92% * 4190)) = 2063 + 163 - 2043 = 200

This is pretty close and we have to tweak down for chance villain has a T, so it looks like a total coin flip (based on my raising range).