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But the NFC is so weak that you could put PHL 6th. At this point, I think that that they make the playoffs 50% of the time.

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That's being really optimistic.

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So the first wildcard spot would go to the Giants at 7-3. They look legit but are by no means a lock. I'd say 75% to make playoffs.

The Lions have the other spot at 6-4 and have lost 2 in a row. Have to play GB twice, Dallas at home and SD on the road.

Washington at 5-5 also has lost 3 out of last 4 and has to play at Tampa and at the Giants then finish with Dallas. I guess they could hope that Dallas has clinched homefield but I find it hard to believe that Dallas gives away a game to such a rival.

I like Arizona's schedule at 5-5, but there's a nonzero chance that Arizona wins their division instead and there is no wildcard.

And I would say that there is no more of a chance that someone else makes the playoffs, or this is roughly equal to the chance of the Giants not making the playoffs.

So yeah, I'd guess that the Eagles have 3-4 ducats of a chance out of 10 to get that last spot. So about 1/3 the time the Eagles should make the playoffs. 50% was a bit high.