[Jack of Arcades]

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Jack- I would put Det, No, Cle, Was ahead of Philly without much hesitation. The fact that DVOA has them ahead of all these teams makes me think what I have always thought about DVOA--that it serves its purpose, it is a good measuring tool but that it definitely has its holes.

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Well, yeah, of course it has holes. Here's what Aaron wrote on the Eagles this week:

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The greatness of the top four teams is screwing with our perceptions of the rest of the league. Let me give you an example: the Philadelphia Eagles. Every week, the Eagles seem to look worse and worse and yet they stay high in DVOA. This is the second straight year this has happened, but all the declining veterans are a year older now and it sure doesn’t seem like there is a late-season surge coming. DVOA ranks the Eagles 12th, and that team I saw on the field at the Linc Sunday night sure didn’t look like one of the top dozen teams in football.

However, the Eagles looked that bad in large part because the Cowboys are so good. The middle of the league is pretty bunched together right now. It seems ridiculous to have them 12th, but look at the teams ranked below them and ask yourself: which of these teams would you really favor to beat the Eagles on a neutral field? The Chargers, maybe… but the Chargers are ahead of the Eagles in weighted DVOA anyway. The Redskins? Jason Campbell is struggling as much as Donovan McNabb lately. I don’t think the Eagles are really better than the Browns. Brian Westbrook is the kind of player who should kill the Bills defense. The Bengals don’t even have a defense. The Lions? Didn’t the Eagles totally beat them down a few weeks ago? Remember, that game counts in the ratings too.

Once you look closer at the rest of the league, Philadelphia being 12th in regular DVOA and 13th in weighted DVOA really isn’t that strange.

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So I mean, you'd put 4 teams ahead of Philly that aren't there now? I mean, you're gonna move Philly down like 4 spots. The biggest jump would be Detroit who Philly destroyed, but DVOA still only considers Philly to be about 2.5 points better than.

The way this season has gone there's a well defined top 4, and you know a team like TEN and GB are in the top 10, but what else? Pretty much every team outside of the bottom 8 or so has looked wildly inconsistent. It's hard to tell what's real and what's not.