Re: Adrian Peterson Bodog props
They added one for Peterson breaking Dickerson's TD record (18) and an over/under 15.5 for his total rushing TDs.
I maxed the No on > 18 TDs at -200.
He has 8 rushing TDs currently, so if the 15.5 is accurate, there is an average of 7.5 more TDs he will score this year. He needs to score 11 more TDs to break the record. Using Poisson this gives a 13.78% chance, so the No is substantially +EV. I personally think that 15.5 is a little high, which would make the edge here even larger. The juice for the over/under agrees - the over 15.5 is currently -105 and the under is -135.
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