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Old 11-28-2007, 12:00 PM
thursday thursday is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 35
Default Re: The No Limit Paradigm

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Even better, we could three-bet to $24.75 preflop and then bet $0.25 on the flop. When villain calls 60% of the time we still lose $15 but when he folds 40% of the time we now win $1980, for a net win of $19.65 per hand!

See, there's a problem with your assumption: when you change your bet size (as a fraction of the pot) you also change your opponent's calling range. A smaller bet gets called more often, so the $3 bet won't have the same folding and calling ratios as the $6 bet. Which bet is EV-maximizing will depend on the specific flavor of opponent you're facing; trying to mathematically optimize this in a vaccuum is very hard, and your assumption of constant folding equity is so terribly wrong that it leads you to horribly incorrect and expensive conclusions. Don't put faith in this theory because it will lead you astray.

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lol thank you for summarizing this, i was just about to.
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