[elindauer]

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thanks again, eric. i don't know if this matters, but when i'm giving these odds what i'm saying is that(when put to the decision on the turn) my opponent must infer that he will be forced to call a bet on the river; not that i actually will(or intend to) bet the river.

sort of like in NL, when you make a big pot sized or 2/3 pot sized bet on the flop or turn you are in effect telling your opponent, "get ready to stack off" if he calls your intitial bet.

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Totally understand this, and it's a very important concept for play in practice. You're opponent may very well think like this.

However, when considering what the game theory perfect play of your range is, you begin with the assumption that your oppnonent knows what you are doing and will play his hand perfectly against you. In this context, it's incorrect to say that the calldown ratio is important. So I'm trying to show what odds you really should be using to mix in bluffs, and that is, I think, the true odds your opponent is receiving immediately.

It might seem like hair-splitting, but I don't think so. It's a common flaw in limit holdem players to make calldown-all-the-way-or-not decisions, which can be exploited by bluffing early and giving up later in the hand. I think this is a hole that prevents lots of TAGs from moving up. So elliminating this hole in our understanding of game theory and seeing the effect it has on the default range can be important in helping us understand how we should deal with tough players in spots like these.

-eric