[mb6tour]

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(SB)Hero 455
(BB)Villain 2545

Hero posts 25, Villain posts 50. Hero has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Hero?

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okay, so we're looking at pushing for 455 to win 50. Quick assumption: he calls top 40% and folds 60% (we can adjust this if we find the decision to be close or if we decide that he'll call much looser or tighter than this. Also, download pokerstove for help with this stuff if you don't have it.). Then 3 of 5 times we win 50 (+50), and 2 of 5 times we play a 910 chip pot with 74o. Our equity against top 40% with 74o is ~32%. Then we are entitled to 32% of the 910 chips when he calls. (.32)(910) = ~290. So our EV is 290 - 420 (what we'll have minus what we would have if we folded) = -140.

Then our EV of pushing is (3/5)(+50) + (2/5)(-140) = -130.

So we see that if he calls top 40% against our push, the amount we lose as a result of his calling greatly outweighs the amount we win from fold equity. As it turns out, for this push to be profitable, villain would have to fold medium off-suit aces and lower, and also fold 22-55 (found from pokerstove @ top 24%). This seems unlikely, so we're forced to fold.


As for you "giving up the thread," that's too bad, but not all that relevant. See my next post.

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You have your EV calculations wrong .

It should be 75*3/5 + 2/5*[480*1/3 - 480*2/3] ~ -5.6666 which is about -1/5th of the sb or 1/10th of the BB .

If you were interested in how often villain needs to fold to make the push with 7-4 off-suit positive EV , then you would solve :

EV(push) = 75*x + (1-x)*[480*1/3 - 430*2/3]>=0

After simplification of the algebra you should get

201.6666x >= 126.6666
x>= 62.8099173 %

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Why it's -480*2/3 on the first equation and -430*2/3 on the second?