[gregorio]

PF: ATo is not worth playing OOP to a 3bet vs villain with PFR of 8.7.

Flop: I agree set or overpair are big part of his range here. So why not raise, because you're going to get paid off by those hands, and if you go for c/r on turn, it sucks if he checks behind.

Turn: Since you underrepped your hand on flop, you have no idea where you stand now. Villain with AF=7.5 can just be c-betting 2 streets here, but likely got a piece of flop or turn and has a set or straight or overpair now. He has no reason to put you on a big hand, so why wouldn't he bet here. If he doesn't have a club, he doesn't want to give you a free card with his set or overpair.

You are in a tough spot. I think raising turn only folds a worse hand, so I like just calling, but another club on river is horrible, so I also hate just calling. But I think I jsut call. I don't think you get more value from a worse hand.

This leaves you with a tough decision on the river, because you face a potential psb for the rest of your stack. I check and hope he checks behind. With 4th club I c/f to a shove (you have a little over 1/3 of your stack in on river, so you are not committed if big scare card comes). 4th club is scarey for him if he doesn't have a flush, so a bet is pretty strong. If board pairs, I c/f. If a blank comes and he bets, I don't know what I do. I prolly call. I think a reasonable villain doesn't bet a worse hand here, but this guy is AF of 7.5.

If you raise the flop and lead the turn, the hand plays so much easier, because then any aggression from villain mean something. But when you're just calling and villain is super agro, it's so hard to put them on anything.


Just read Alobar's post, and agree it is hard to put villain on flush. You played the hand like you have the draw. You didnt expect to see him bet this turn, but why not. He has AF of 7, so he always bets. YOu haven't shown any strength, so he can't be too scared of what you have. I think a lot of it depends on reads on how he plays (not just the xx/yy/zz), what kinds of hands he's shown down, etc. Is he a thinking player, or does he regard his top set or over pair as the nuts even on this board. So hard to know at $10NL.