[bills217]

Louisville @ Kentucky

Projecting Louisville -6, O/U 76

The total is gonna have to be something just ridiculous. Both teams have very good offenses and brutal defenses. Kentucky also had injuries along the defensive line against Kent State and could be comically thin there next week.

I can't see there being very many stops in this game on either side. Louisville's defense looked like complete air against MTSU, and frankly it's not a good sign that Murray moved the ball at all against their 1st team D. Kentucky's defense has been improved of late (hasn't allowed more than 20 points in their last 4 games), but still gives up a ton of yards and Louisville is one of if not the best offense in the country. Louisville is a passing team, but they should be even more able to gash UK with Anthony Allen on the ground, as UK's run D is more vulnerable than it's pass D. Kentucky showed yesterday that they can play an atrocious half and still score 56 against a decent Kent St. team. As someone who's seen basically every play of UK football for several years, I think UK didn't really show a lot against EKU and Kent St...the screen game and TE Jacob Tamme are critical parts of the offense that were utilized virtually none in the first two games.

Should be a real shootout. Any total below 70 is an easy over, prolly up to 73. I like Louisville at -3 or better, and Kentucky at 10 or better (for sure)...in between will require a bit more analysis.

Note: Against Kent St., UK was outgained 300-100 in the first half, only to promptly outgain Kent St. 380-150 in the 2nd half. Go figure.