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Old 02-08-2007, 04:00 PM
SpaceAce SpaceAce is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 3,017
Default Re: basic question but need good explanation please

Almost everything your friend says in those chats is ridiculous. It does not matter if an eight flops (or doesn't flop) every hand for a thousand hands, playing eights does not become more or less profitable. Likewise, it simply DOES NOT MATTER if a coin (assuming it is a fair coin) comes up heads 234,000 times in a row, the chance of the next flip coming up heads is still 50%.

Ask your friend this: If the coin comes up heads ten times in a row and then he puts the coin away for a year, when he pulls that coin out of his desk drawer a year later, does it still owe him some tails? How is the coin "remembering" it's flips? How long is this mysterious coin memory good for? A day? A month? Eternity?

Ask your friend this as well: how does he know how many times the coin came up tails before the coin came into his possession? How does your friend know that the coin didn't simply "owe" the world a few heads to balance out a deficit created by the last guy who flipped the coin? How does your friend know that the lack of eights in flops he has witnessed isn't just the balancing out from a previous glut of eights at that table?

Your friend is all washed up on this one.

SpaceAce
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