[poker12]

I have a friend who I am having a very hard time explaining basic probability to. He plays 10nl poker and he thinks that if you flip a coin and the first time it is heads, the next time there is a greater chance it will be tails.

Now he thinks it is a more advanced concept(he's an engineer) that you need to look at the entire sample size and if you flip the coin and 50 times in a row it is heads, then he will bet money that tails is coming soon. Here's a little excerpt from our chat:

[20:34] p: sure, statistic do work over a large pool, but it is applied in small sub-systems as well.
[20:34] p: and sure if the first two times you flip heads, I will put my money that the next one will be tails.
[20:34] p: an so forth.
[20:34] p: I keep seeing hearts being flopped, that soon I going to start seeing spades or less hearts.