Re: The Mathematics of poker by Bill Chen & some dude...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Traditional risk of ruin says, for a 300 bet bankroll:
ror = exp(-2*w*b/s^2) = exp(-2*1.5*300/289) = 4.44%
This is the risk of ruin if your TRUE win rate is 1.5 bb/100 and your TRUE standard deviation is 17 bb/100.
[/ QUOTE ]
On what basis do you use standard deviation to predict what will happen a future sittings at a poker table?
[/ QUOTE ]
<montypython>It's only a model.</montypython>
[/ QUOTE ]
How about next time you guys come up with a model you do so for poker, and not some imaginary game?
|