[cheburashka]

Hi Bob,

I think that your shove is barely +EV, if villain is anything like me (something you should pray for every day).

From MP3, he is probably open raising something like 66+, AT+, A5-A9s, KT+, QJ, SCs 65-JT. He would fold about 60% of these to your shove (i.e. everything but 88+, AJ+), and he would have about 73% equity against your A9o with what he doesn’t fold.

Putting it altogether, you win 60% * 450 = +270 if he folds, you win 40% * 27% * 1340 = +161 if he calls and you win, and you lose 40% * 73% * - 1340 = -391 if he calls and you lose. Net EV = ~40.

P.S. We’re all going to refuse to answer any more of your posts unless you bring your old avatar back.