Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
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I think you are just trying to find a hidden pattern that is not there.
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We've had this discussion on this board at least 2x. There is no +EV there. Some books ban these parlays due to cfb games where you can have Okla -42, Total=48 and in those cases there is +EV on a correlated parlay, so they ban them all rather than waste time figuring which is which.
There is no +EV on AFC-14, Total =56. NFL is not college LDO. You can run hot over short sample size, but you're simply data-mining. Besides, what if the value is Fav/Under? Or Dog/Over? Then you're explicitly making -EV bets.
Your matrix of payouts is: +1.6, -2, -2, +1.6.
Wouldn't a 2-team "IF-bet" have higher EV anyway? If AFC-14 wins 20, then Over 56 wins 40/[38 I guess]. I haven't looked at IF-bets in years so I'm not 100% sure. I know you can do If-bets on game[s] at same time or even If on 4pm with 2nd leg on 1pm.
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