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Old 11-20-2007, 01:51 PM
Dankenstein Dankenstein is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Valuetown
Posts: 229
Default Re: top two in huge pre-flop capped pot

:G:
I would have raised preflop like you said. From mp3's pfr stats and the fact that he capped preflop I think it's safe to say he has Aces or kings here...maybe queens. Seeing how tight he is I doubt he would 3-bet with AK let alone cap. BB's range is maybe a little more liberal without reads it's difficult to say.

Flop: Wow this is tough you have TP with an Ok kicker in the middle of a raising war. Normally I would dump here but the pot is soooo big I think you have to call and dump on a bad turn as you said.

Turn: This is really tricky.. suddenly UTG wakes up after just calling all the way through. I feel like he has a flush here but maybe he hit a worse 2 pair ? The pot is big here but I fold. The BB really scares me The only thing you beat here is an overplayed AA or KK from the BB. But I put the rest of his range on TT,JJ,QQ,AKs,or AK which all put you in really bad shape. Yes, you're getting close to 10:1, but if you apply this range to your opponent your outs may need to be discounted. Also if this range is correct how often is BB 3-betting here ?

This hand is tough and I'm not sure how good my analysis is but that's my take on the situation. In all honesty if I was playing this in the heat of the moment and wasn't analyzing the hand I probabaly would call down especially since I would be really pissed if I folded this big of a pot with 2 pair and BB didn't 3-bet, a Q or J came on the river, or everyone was overplaying their hand. With that in mind calling my be good if you tilt bad..
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