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But how am I supposed to figure out the break-even point? Consult an actuary??? lol.

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Yeah, paying one of us to figure it our for you would probably be prohibitively high. I guess my warning to you is that your employer will consult with their actuaries to figure our the cost of the old benefit, and when they turn it into an HSA they will for sure design an HSA with employer contribution less than the current employer value provided. Of course, this likely won't be included in their communication regarding the change. If at all possible, pump them for such information.