Re: Slowplay?
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(1) you might win the pot right there. great, but my point is i want to eek out extra value from hands he would fold on the flop.
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Does a c-bet scare away worse hands? If he won't call one on the flop getting 10:1 I don't think he'll call anything on the end... unless he's drawn out on you or has you beat. And if he starts betting on the turn don't you think you're beat? Because I doubt he valuebets out of position with an underpair here. (?)
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(2) if he puts in a c/r you 3 bet and you should know pretty quickly where you are, costing only 1.5 BBs compared to calling down if he's ahead (and making a nice pot if he's not) but for .5bb more i get to showdown everytime without scaring off a worse hand
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Is your goal to go to showdown or to win the hand?
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(4) if he smooth calls, you can fold to a turn donk bet as there are no draws on the board and it looks like a monster (I'm most unsure about this situation... is this a calldown??) i would call and see if he fires again on the river, i think.
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And you fold if he does?
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A note on the possibility of facing a flop c/r: if he is a good thinking player as you indicate, he could easily put in a 4-bet on the flop with worse hands like TT-QQ. um. no he wouldn't against me. especially since i'm not 3betting the flop.
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If you know this, I think that's even more of a reason to 3-bet against a c/r!
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I'm also a little unsure about if he calls a 3-bet on the flop. once again, i'm not 3betting the flop if he c/r. it will only lose more and slow down a worse hand.
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I don't think you can eat your cake and have it too. Do you want more money in the pot or less? Folding to a flop 4-bet will lose less than calling turn and river bets (which a TAG with an A in his hand will certainly make for value after checking behind on the flop). And making him fold a worse hand will prevent him from hitting a thin draw.
I don't see the problem with a b/r/f line on the flop.
Any future streets would depend on the action you get.
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