Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
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I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them.
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Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session.
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That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s.
Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one.
I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120.
Sherman
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