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  #57  
Old 03-15-2007, 07:05 PM
SplawnDarts SplawnDarts is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,332
Default Re: The \"Emperor\'s nose\" fallacy & poker

[ QUOTE ]
> OP has been repeatedly shown to be a blowhard and
> BS artist w/ no credibility whatsoever.

I don't agree here ;-) From my past experience OP sometimes argue to details beyond any reasonable point, but has some vg posts.

Fast look into the thread I got the following points
1) Don't make a lot of math based on useless data - obvious, but I still like the original story, doesn't improve my BB/100H but it's good.
2) When looking at data do the math right - it's not always an average you should take over the hand range. Also fairly obvious but I hardly have seen ever this considered in most of hand analysys I've read

And actually there is no point for discussion. The more reliable data you have estimating the exact probability that he has each possible hand + how he would react to your actions - the better you can do the math and play. If you don't have data, you're just gambling, or playing (what you hope to approximate of course) universal optimal / or exploitive vs. average field stategy.

It's just a good story.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like at least one person "got" it. The part in bold is exactly the win-reate increasing nugget you're supposed to take away.