Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
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rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. Whether or not 9 is more common than 10, is irrelevant as you are crossing a bunch of less common numbers. 6.5 to 11.5 crosses 7,8,9,10,11. .5 to 6.5 crosses 1,2,3,4,5,6. You probably gain more value with .5 to 6.5 than 6.5 to 11.5. Six points is always big, but the greater advantage comes with the lower numbers.
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I agree with this, but games that have a line of -6.5 will have a higher distribution of 10 and 11pt games than games that have a line of -2.5
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