Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.
[/ QUOTE ]
All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ
[/ QUOTE ]
OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller?
[/ QUOTE ]
Page 131 is postseason. You want regular season.
Look at Page 147, Regular Season Overall Margins of Victory.
3: 16.11%
7: 9.77%
10: 6.45%
6: 5.66%
14: 4.39%
If you want to see it graphically, look at page 82, overall margin of victory for regular season (Figure 5.1)
|