[John Kilduff]

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I've never read Tom Clancy, but it stands to reason that it is a very plausible scenario. If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years, and China has had an imperialistic culture for thousands of years. Not that I don't like very much certain other aspects of Chinese culture, especially art and music. It is a rich culture, but it is also decidedly very strict and imperialistic. China is very patiently building up and modernizing with the eventual aim of winning a war with the USA, if that's what is required for China to become the world's largest hegemon.

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I'm not sure how you can argue that China has become more totalitarian in recent years, but that's beside the point. China is certainly a long-term threat to the peace and independence of the region of SE Asia, but I think it's a little far-fetched to worry about a Chinese thread to the US. Unless the Bering Land Bridge reemerges, their big army isn't going to be that useful.

I think this test is much more about showing off and playing to nationalist sentiment at home than shooting down GPS satellites and pulling off a second Pearl Harbor.

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China has definitelly become more totalitarian in recent years, as evidenced by its increasingly stringent and heavy handed crackdowns and policing of means of expression, including over the internet. Censorship and the like in China is UP.

The scenario I am describing is obviously not immediate--if by far-fetched you mean far-off, then OK...but I don't think it's a far-fetched scenario given 2 to 3 decades. Of course it might not occur but it very well might also.

As for China's army, China is fast developing a "blue water"
Navy, and overall offensive military capability. Give them 20 or 30 years and they will easily reach a near-parity with U.S. conventional forces, plus have a far larger Army, plus likely have the means to nullify much of the USA's hi-tech advantage in weapons systems. They recently shadowed a U.S. aircraft carrier, which was a shocker, and the shadowing sub was within range of devastating torpedo attack. China just shot down their own weather satellite which had a higher orbit than U.S. military satellites and which would be harder to shoot down. The U.S. currently possesses great hi-tech advantages, but such things are vulnerable to asymmetric countermeasures and China should be in a position to implement such countermeasures in decades to come, particularly if the U.S. does not itself proceed with a program of military space hegemony. Anti-satellite is easier and more cost-effective that satellite systems.