[Groty]

The the sake of simplicity, I ignored direct loans in computing the increase in deliquencies. Direct loans are a small portion of the total book and aren't materially different from the contracts.

From page 20 of the 10Q, using contract information:

Contract delinquencies at Sept. 30 2005 were $3,876,429.
Contract delinquencies at Sept. 30 2005 were $6,196,410.

(6,196,410 - 3,876,429)/3.876.429 = 59.8%.

How did you arrive at a 30% increase in delinquencies?

45% of the dollar amount of contracts purchased in the September quarter were in Florida, a state feeling disproportionate pain associated with the housing slowdown. The stuff I'm reading suggests the homebuilders only started laying off construction workers in the past couple of months. I'm guessing some portion of the people willing to pay 24% interest to purchase a used car are day laborers. I feel pretty confident delinquencies are going to increase even more in the months ahead.

That said, your liquidition analysis looks solid.