Villain 26/20/4, 80 hands. No direct history at this table, but villain is playing exactly as you'd expect a decent TAG to play.
This is a common problem - you feel you are being offered the odds at every point and simultaneously feel you have very little FE against better hands, so you call along. This of course is a killer when you just have to fold in the end.
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Converter at
Talking-Poker
saw flop |
<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>
Button ($51.41)
SB
Hero ($49.50)
BB ($67.49)
UTG
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($50.00)</font>
UTG+1 ($52.55)
CO
<font color="#C00000">CO ($50.30)</font>
Preflop: Hero is in the SB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
1 fold, CO raises to $2.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7.00, 1 fold, CO raises to $12.00, Hero calls $5.00.
Flop (24.50) K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero checks, CO bets $11.00, Hero calls $11.00.
Turn (46.50) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, CO moves all-in for $27.30, Hero folds
.................................
So preflop when he mini 4bs I am getting 4/1 on my money:
Hand 0: 28.607% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 71.393% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
(Making it KK+ makes surprisingly little equity difference).
On flop I am getting 3/1 AND he might just have whiffed or have QQ- AND his bet is so weak:
Board: Kh 2c As
Hand 0: 23.706% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 76.294% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Finally, by the time villain bets the turn, QQ disappears from his range IMO, and we now know we are toast despite getting 2.7/1 on our money. Worse still, we are toast light almost half a BI!
What do you do throughout?
Thanks.