[thejerkface]

SILLYGOOSER,
When you're going to make a big bluff, it's best to follow these 3 simple rules:
1. Your opponent is capable of folding the range you assign him.
2. There are several hands you are representing which beat your opponent's range.
3. The line you took is congruent with the hands you are representing.

Point 1 is totally opponent dependent. Most players have a default line when faced with a difficult decision: some call, while others fold. I have not played with Whose House enough to say which category he falls into. There are some regs at 5/10 where it would be suicide to pull a move like this, b/c they never believe anyone. In this specific hand in order for you to break even, your opponent has to fold 67% of the time. That's a really high % in order for this play to be successful. So, I think you need to have a good read on your opponent to know he can fold here before you make this move.


Point 2 deals with what you are representing. In this case, it is a very narrow range: A3, 33, 44, 66. There really isn't much else you can represent.

For A3, you are not calling A3o OOP, so that can be removed from your range. You can only have A3s. When the flop comes a rainbow A33, there can only be one A3s that flops a boat. In this case, it is A3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

With two 3s already on the board, there is only 1 combination of 33, which would be quads.

When the turn comes a 6, there are only 3 combos of 66 left. The same goes for the river 4, there are only 3 combos of 44 left, making 6 total combos of 44 and 66. However, I think both of these hands should be discounted signifcantly, considering that you check-called the flop OOP on an Ace high board. I can't imagine you doing this 100% of the time, and if you are, it would definitely be a huge leak. So, we have to discount the probability of 44 and 66. We'll say that you'll fold them 50% on the flop and call the other 50% of the time (this is a liberal estimate IMO, but w/e). So this reduces the combos of 66 and 44 by 50% from 6 combos to 3.

So, we're left with these 5 total combinations:
A3s (1)
33 (1)
44+66 (3)

This is obviously a very narrow range that you are repping.


The last point deals with the line you took and whether it makes sense to the villain. To do this, the villain would take the 5 combos of hands you are representing and plug them into how the hand played and ask himsel: Would Sillygooser play these hands like this? Does his line make sense? I can't really answer this question, but I will say that you took a very goofy, non-standard line for the hands you are repping.

A lot of player will call in spots like this if there are two conditions present (1) my opponent is repping a very narrow range (2) the line he took does not make sense for the hands he is repping. Both conditions are present in this hand.

In a vacuum, this hand may have been successful, but in the long-run, I think making plays like this are -EV. If you are going to do this in the future, I think you need a very spot on read of your opponent.