[TNixon]

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small stack poker is actually very low variance.

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I'd like to see some logical or mathematical backing to this statement, because in my mind, it's very clear that playing 5BB stacks is much higher variance than playing 100BB stacks, assuming an equal stack value. Playing a $100 stack at 0.5/1 blinds is clearly going to be lower variance than playing a $100 stack at 10/20 blinds, but that's exactly the situation a tournament puts you in, playing your $100 stack for larger and larger blinds.

Open-pushing with A5 is a high variance move. I'm never going to open-push with something like A5 when I have 100BB, but that is a common situation when effective stacks are small compared to the blinds. The only reason you make the move in the first place though, is because the blinds are so big compared to the stacks that the risk vs reward ratio is in your favor, whether your opponent calls loose (in which case your hand has a positive EV), or they call tight (in which case you're buying the blinds enough to be freerolling for probably a 30%-ish chance to win when they finally do call).

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assuming you are a solid 60% winner your results can only deviate from your expected value (roughly 15% roi) by at most .85 buyins.

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Since you don't sound a complete idiot, I'm going to assume that you're *not* trying to say what it sounds like you're trying to say here, that the swings due to variance will be less than a single buyin for a 60% winner. (which is obviously not true)

But if you're not trying to say that, then I don't have any idea what you really are trying to say. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Also, the examples from large-field tourneys are pretty irrelevant. It is clear and obvious that the more entrants there are in a tourney, the higher your variance will be. So heads-up sit-n-gos are clearly the lowest variance of all the freezeouts, but the fact that adding more people to a tournament increases the variance has absolutely no bearing on whether heads-up cash is higher or lower (or the same) variance as heads-up sit-n-gos.

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A player with a solid 10ptbb/100hands edge on his opponent will frequently play pots for 200+bb if they are both playing aggressively.

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You seem to be claiming here that players will get their stacks all-in much more frequently in cash games as opposed to tournaments.

I don't have a huge amount of experience at heads-up cash, but from what I've played and what I've seen and heard, this is not true.

In fact, I would argue that the reverse is true, that the chips get all-in more frequently and with weaker hands in a tournament, because of the pressure from the increasing blinds.

And every tournament is for a full stack. If you're running particularly badly so that you can't find any hands worth putting chips after, you don't get off easy and just lose a third or a half your stack. You lose it all, due to the pressure of the blinds, or more likely, you end up flipping coins for your full stack.