[Paul Thomson]

Way too tired to make a decent post. Quick thoughts.

I can't believe the Villian checked. If he mini-raises the flop, I think he's obligated to lead out and bet the turn. This lends itself to my theory that our opponent is a donk disguised as a villian.

All my posts up to this point were designed to keep the pot small because I feared that the Villian pressure us into folding. But now that he checked the turn on one of the best possible cards that could come off, I'm going to value bet.

I would bet around half the pot so that the Villian doesn't have odds to call with a draw. I still hope it's small enough that he calls. If he raises us all-in, I'm going to call with the 75% pot equity I gave the hero in my last pot.

Must sleep now.